Evaluating Cowboys' likelihood of picking a quarterback in the first round of 2024 NFL Draft

Consider the Dallas Cowboys' situation right now: Quarterback Dak Prescott is entering a contract year in 2024 and by failing to extend him thus far, the front office risks having the MVP runner-up head for a taste of free agency in 2025 and pull off a Kirk Cousins in the open market.

The Cowboys, known for believing that deadlines make deals, are playing a dangerous game at the most important position in the sport.

With potential mayhem ahead, this begs the question: should they be shopping for an insurance policy and targeting a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft?

The way I see it, the short answer is no. Since this is not Twitter, though, let's try to find the longer answer.

On paper, drafting a quarterback could totally make sense. Dallas hasn't secured Dak long-term so it's easy to assume they're open to various possibilities. So worst-case scenario, bet on a first-round QB to develop in case things go wrong. But there are multiple problems with that thinking.

First of all is the fact that this team has way too many holes on the roster to ignore at 24th overall. It's missing two starting offensive lineman, it's thin at linebacker, has no experienced RB1 to bank on and could really use some depth at defensive line and wide receiver. That first-round pick is the team's biggest shot at legitimately getting better in 2024 after they seemingly slept through free agency. 

Additionally, the Cowboys will be out of range for the top four quarterbacks in this year's class as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy are all expected to be off the board in the Top 10 if not the Top 5. 

That means the front office would be looking at Bo Nix and Michael Penix instead and it's only fair to question the trade-off of passing on a potential starter for signal-callers with not nearly as much upside. 

But more than any of this, there's a huge reason why the Cowboys are highly unlikely to take a QB at 24th.

The Cowboys will want to see the Trey Lance reps in the summer

It's far-fetched to assume the Cowboys were thinking of gaining leverage against Dak Prescott when they traded for Lance last year just because Prescott holds all of the leverage in this situation and adding another QB did not change that one bit.

But what I believe to be true is that the Cowboys wouldn't have parted ways with a fourth-round pick if they didn't really think they had a shot at developing Lance's elite traits into good quarterback play, which he hasn't been able to do since arriving at the NFL in 2021.

At the very least, I expect the Cowboys to want to give Lance a fair share of snaps come training camp to see where he's at after a full season on the inactive players list. Adding a rookie quarterback to the mix would only dilute the team's chances at looking at Lance.